Strait of Hormuz Traffic Returns to Normal? - By August 31

Prediction market on polymarket_us. If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, according to IMF PortWatch, is greater than or equal to 60 for any day between June 22 and August 31, this market settles to Yes. Outcome verified by IMF PortWatch. This market will settle as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If IMF PortWatch publishes data which is clearly erroneous (e.g., a typographic mistake or other clerical error), settlement may be delayed pending correction or confirmation by IMF PortWatch.

Resolves: 9/14/2026.