Loading
Prediction market on polymarket_us. This market will settle to Yes if the United States and Iran sign or formally adopt a written diplomatic instrument that establishes a percentage cap of 5% or less on the purity level to which Iran may enrich uranium, committed to for at least one year, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Outcome sourced from the United States, Iran, and the officially released text of the instrument. The instrument must specifically include a 5% or lower percentage cap that operates as a general ceiling on the level to which Iran may enrich uranium for any purpose. Vague, or non-specific language regarding the level of Iranian uranium enrichment which does not establish a specific percentage cap on all Iranian enrichment (e.g., lower levels, civilian grade, maintain the status quo) will not qualify. Caps which directly mandate a precise 5% or lower percentage cap on Iranian enrichment through reference to a publicly-recognized benchmark percentage (e.g., JCPOA-levels), however, will qualify, even if they do not specifically reference the relevant numeric percentage itself. An Iranian commitment to end all enrichment of uranium qualifies as a cap, as it establishes a 0% cap on Iranian uranium enrichment. A qualifying enrichment cap must be committed for a period of at least one year. A permanent enrichment cap will qualify. An enrichment cap with no specified end date will qualify unless explicitly framed as short-term, provisional, or temporary (e.g., a commitment not to enrich uranium while the exact implementation terms of the instrument are being finalized would not qualify). A cap committed to for less than one year will not qualify, even if framed as permitting extension. The enrichment cap must be expressed as a presently-agreed obligation to be implemented. A presently-agreed obligation to such an enrichment cap will qualify, even if technical or procedural details, including the implementation schedule or specific monitoring requirements, remain subject to future arrangements. A conditional commitment the substantive obligation of which remains explicitly subject to a future agreement, negotiation process, or mutually agreed follow-on instrument (e.g., a commitment to agree upon an enrichment cap in a future agreement) will not qualify. A commitment explicitly framed as a minimum requirement for a future negotiation, rather than a present obligation, will not qualify. Unless the written instrument is formally adopted without signature as described below, the instrument must be signed by both the United States and Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document or sign individual documents that substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying instrument, regardless of minor formatting, wording, or translation differences between the signed versions. Both physical signatures and officially-issued electronic signatures will qualify as signatures. If the written instrument is recognized by the United States and Iran as not requiring signature for execution, formal adoption of the instrument by both countries without signature will qualify. Formal adoption may be established by official actions, including: (i) an official joint statement announcing that the United States and Iran have adopted, approved, executed, concluded, or otherwise finalized the instrument; (ii) mutual official confirmation that the same published instrument has been agreed to, adopted, approved, executed, or concluded by both countries; (iii) adoption, approval, or endorsement through an official resolution, ministerial decision, executive decision, or equivalent institutional act, where that act is the mechanism by which the relevant country adopts the instrument; or (iv) an exchange of official diplomatic notes or letters confirming acceptance of the same instrument. Whether an instrument qualifies will be primarily determined by its officially released text. A qualifying instrument must be signed or formally adopted by both the United States and Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. If such an instrument is signed or formally adopted by that time, but the complete text has not been released within 28 days of adoption, official and definitive announcements from the United States and Iran regarding the text, or a consensus of major news agencies of record, may be used to determine whether the instrument qualifies. If, on {date}, the text of such an instrument has not been released and genuine material ambiguity remains as to whether it satisfies this markets requirements, settlement may be postponed to allow for 28 calendar days after the date of adoption to pass pending release of the text. Once a diplomatic instrument has been signed or formally adopted without signature by both the United States and Iran and confirmed to satisfy the requirements of a qualifying written diplomatic instrument, this markets condition is met, regardless of whether the instrument later enters into force, is ratified, receives legislative or treaty consent, or is subsequently repudiated, withdrawn from, or not implemented by the United States or Iran.
Resolves: 1/14/2027.