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Prediction market on polymarket_us. This market will settle to Yes if the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, according to IMF PortWatch, is less than or equal to 10 for any day between July 12 and December 31, 2026. Outcome sourced from IMF PortWatch. This market will settle as soon as IMF PortWatch (https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint4) publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If IMF PortWatch publishes data which is clearly erroneous (e.g., a typographic mistake or other clerical error), settlement may be delayed pending correction or confirmation by IMF PortWatch.
Resolves: 1/14/2027.