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Prediction market on polymarket_us. This market will settle to Yes if Phoebe Gates is arrested between Contract Issuance and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Outcome sourced from relevant law enforcement authorities. A qualifying arrest refers to the specified person being taken into physical custody, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true: (i) they are criminally booked or processed; (ii) they are taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument; (iii) they are held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or (iv) they are transported to a police station, detention facility, or equivalent in connection with a criminal arrest. The following do not qualify unless they independently constitute a qualifying arrest: being charged without being taken into physical custody, a warrant being issued but not executed, being named in an indictment, brief detention, being interviewed, questioned, or searched, being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring without physical custody, or being placed in protective custody, in witness protection, or on medical holds. Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development does not affect settlement once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
Resolves: 1/14/2027.