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Why Prediction Рынок Prices Are Not Quite Probabilities
A contract Торговля at 60 cents does not exactly equal a 60% probability. Transaction costs, Риск aversion, and time value create subtle but important wedges.
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A contract Торговля at 60 cents does not exactly equal a 60% probability. Transaction costs, Риск aversion, and time value create subtle but important wedges.