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Why Prediction 시장 Prices Are Not Quite Probabilities
A contract 트레이딩 at 60 cents does not exactly equal a 60% probability. Transaction costs, 리스크 aversion, and time value create subtle but important wedges.
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A contract 트레이딩 at 60 cents does not exactly equal a 60% probability. Transaction costs, 리스크 aversion, and time value create subtle but important wedges.