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Prediction market on manifold. Do you think the third World War will occur before the much-anticipated release of Grand Theft Auto 6? Share your thoughts and predictions in this poll. The prediction resolves to yes if war is declared between 2 or more of the super powers before GTA 6's release. Edit: declaration may be implicit - 03/07/2024 Edit: human troops are not a must to meet requirements to this question's criteria - 30/01/2025 Edit: length of conflict is also not a must to meet requirements - 30/01/2025 Edit: fixed a weird comment by the AI summary, sorry for the confusion it may have caused. - 05/04/2025 Edit: small clarification that if GTA is delayed, this question would follow - 05/04/2025 Edit: GTA has been delayed to May 2026, thus this question will follow (https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjew84ev3yyo) - 03/05/2025 Edit: GTA has been delayed again to November 2026 (https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwypgvd9j8qo) - 12/11/2025 Update 2025-01-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Development of Fully Mechanized Armies: The emergence of fully mechanized military forces (e.g., AI-driven drones, autonomous weapons systems) could enable a new form of direct conflict. In such a scenario, nations might be able to shield their populations in bunkers while launching large-scale, all-out attacks on their adversaries. Diplomatic Misunderstandings Leading to Small-Scale Conflicts: A breakdown in diplomacy could spark numerous localized conflicts around the world. If these conflicts become widespread enough, they could collectively be considered a "world at war," even if individually they are short-lived (likely lasting no more than a few weeks). Update 2025-02-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Fully Mechanized Armies Clarification: The mere development of fully mechanized military forces (such as AI-driven drones and autonomous weapons systems) is sufficient for this criterion, even if these forces are not actually deployed. ( OP: This is not the case as specified in another post, the AI wrongly assumed my intentions. Here the relevant comment ``` Having the mechanized/autonomous armies clause simply means that armies made of humans and armies made entirely by autonomous/mechanized units are considered alike to the resolution of this question. This avoids the "no human, no war" exploit to this question. ``` So the decisive factor remains the use of violence aimed at claiming land, whether by humans or machines. In that sense, it's a functional definition of war that applies equally to both. ) This distinguishes the resolution criteria from scenarios (like a cold war) where deployment might be a factor. Update 2026-05-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Leaks or unauthorized copies do not count as a release. GTA VI is considered 'released' only upon its official public launch by Rockstar Games.
24h Volume: $60. Liquidity: $10,000. Resolves: 11/18/2026.