Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?
Prediction market on manifold. See: https://lifeview.com https://www.gwern.net/Embryo-selection Doesn't matter what the traits selected are; can be predicted health, personality traits, intelligence, criminality, whatever. Just matters that the embryo was selected based on not specific, simple criteria (i.e. how many chromosomes a fertilized egg has or whether or not it will have sickle cell disease) but more wide ranging quality of life or "child success" predictions.
Liquidity: $11,520. Resolves: 1/2/2030.