Will widespread non-citizen voting occur in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections?

Prediction market on metaculus. *This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will widespread non-citizen voting occur in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections?* Under [U.S. federal law](https://www.justice.gov/voting), only U.S. citizens are legally permitted to vote in federal elections, including elections for the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate. Federal statutes prohibit non-citizen participation in federal races, and states are required to administer congressional elections in compliance with these rules. While [some local jurisdictions permit non-citizens to vote in municipal or school board elections](https://ballotpedia.org/Laws_permitting_noncitizens_to_vote_in_the_United_States), those policies do not apply to federal elections and are legally distinct. [Concerns about non-citizen voting](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/noncitizen-voting-is-extremely-rare-yet-republicans-are-making-it-a-major-election-concern) have been raised periodically in U.S. political discourse. During the 2024 presidential election cycle, former President Donald Trump and allied campaign figures [repeatedly asserted that large numbers of non-citizens were voting or registering to vote in federal elections](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-noncitizen-voter-fraud-fact-check/), framing the issue as a central election-integrity concern. These claims were widely circulated in campaign messaging and media coverage, contributing to [heightened public attention and polarization around the topic](https://www.npr.org/2024/10/12/nx-s1-5147789/voting-election-2024-noncitizen-fact-check-trump).  Reviews by election officials, courts, and [independent researchers](https://electioninnovation.org/research/noncitizen-analysis/) have generally found that verified instances of non-citizen voting in federal elections are rare, and typically involve administrative errors or isolated cases rather than coordinated or large-scale activity. Analyses by the [Brennan Center for Justice](https://www.brennancenter.org/topics/voting-elections/vote-suppression/myth-voter-fraud) and other election-law experts emphasize the [difference between isolated irregularities and evidence of systemic misconduct](https://www.cato.org/commentary/rights-bogus-claims-about-noncitizen-voting-fraud). Election administration in the United States is decentralized, with [states responsible for voter registration, list maintenance, and verification procedures.](https://www.projectvote.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/List-Maintenance-Legislative-Brief-March-2010.pdf) These systems commonly rely on sworn citizenship attestations, database checks, and post-election audits. Federal agencies such as the [U.S. Election Assistance Commission](https://www.eac.gov/) collect [nationwide election data](https://www.eac.gov/research-and-data/studies-and-reports) and report on administrative issues identified after federal elections. In the context of the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, claims of widespread non-citizen voting would be evaluated through post-election audits, criminal investigations, court rulings, and official findings by election authorities, rather than anecdotal reports or unverified allegations. Any confirmed finding of large-scale non-citizen participation in federal races would represent a significant departure from historical precedent and would likely trigger extensive legal and congressional scrutiny.

Resolves: 1/21/2027.