Will the 2026 U.S. midterm elections be considered "free and fair"?

Prediction market on metaculus. *This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will the 2026 U.S. midterm elections be considered "free and fair"?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-the-US-midterm-elections-be-considered-free-and-fair) In [democratic systems](https://www.un.org/en/global-issues/democracy), a “free and fair” election generally means that eligible voters can cast ballots without undue obstruction, that votes are counted accurately, and that all parties and candidates have a fair opportunity to compete. International and domestic observers often look at a [range of benchmarks](https://www.idea.int/sites/default/files/publications/international-electoral-standards-guidelines-for-reviewing-the-legal-framework-of-elections.pdf) such as election laws, administrative practices, voter access, transparency, and freedom from intimidation. In the United States, responsibility for conducting elections lies primarily [with state and local governments](https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/election-administration-at-state-and-local-levels), which set rules for voter registration, absentee and early voting, polling places, and ballot counting. [Federal law](https://www.eac.gov/election-officials/clearinghouse-resources-election-law-policy/overview-federal-election-laws) prohibits discrimination in voting and requires certain safeguards; for example, the [Voting Rights Act of 1965](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_Rights_Act_of_1965) and provisions of the [Help America Vote Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Help_America_Vote_Act) are designed to protect voter access and election integrity. Federal oversight and guidance are provided by the [U.S. Election Assistance Commission](https://www.eac.gov/), which supports election officials and sets voluntary standards, and by the [U.S. Department of Justice](https://www.justice.gov/), which enforces federal voting rights laws. Independent groups such as the [Bipartisan Policy Center](https://bipartisanpolicy.org/), [The Carter Center](https://www.cartercenter.org/), and the [Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE)](https://odihr.osce.org/odihr/elections) often develop criteria for evaluating election fairness. These can include measures of administrative competence, transparency of processes, protection against fraud or coercion, and equal access for all voters. Domestic organizations sometimes issue post-election reports assessing whether an election met accepted standards.  Assessments of U.S. elections since the 2000s have generally found that American elections are administered competently but have noted [areas for improvement](https://www.brennancenter.org/topics/voting-elections), such as r[educing administrative errors, enhancing voter information, and ensuring uniform access across jurisdictions](https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/10/24/confidence-in-voting-access-and-integrity-expectations-for-whether-and-when-the-election-results-will-be-clear/). Controversies over [voter ID laws](https://ballotpedia.org/Arguments_for_and_against_voter_identification_laws), [redistricting](https://www.americanprogress.org/article/redistricting-and-representation/), and ballot access have also been factors in public debates about fairness. The debate over whether U.S. elections are “free and fair” has been significantly shaped by the [aftermath of the 2020 presidential election](https://millercenter.org/election-2020-and-its-aftermath). President Donald Trump and many allies [alleged widespread voter fraud](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/26/us/politics/republicans-voter-fraud.html) despite the absence of evidence sufficient to overturn results in courts or audits. In the weeks following the election, [polling showed that a large majority of Republican voters expressed doubts](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/30/upshot/republican-voters-election-doubts.html) about the election’s legitimacy, reflecting a sharp partisan divide in trust toward election administration. Although these claims were rejected by state officials, courts, and election-monitoring bodies, they have continued to influence public discourse, party rhetoric, and scrutiny of subsequent elections, including the 2026 midterms. The 2026 U.S. midterm elections will thus take place against a backdrop of ongoing debate over election administration and integrity following recent election cycles. Issues such as voter identification requirements, access to early and absentee voting, election security, and the role of courts in resolving election disputes are expected to be salient in 2026. As in previous midterms, the fairness of the 2026 elections will be assessed not only by whether results are certified and upheld by courts, but also by [post-election reviews, audits, and observer reports ](https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns)examining whether voting and counting processes functioned as intended across states and jurisdictions.

Resolves: 1/21/2027.