Will the Insurrection Act or a state of martial law be declared in relation to the 2026 U.S. midterms?

Prediction market on metaculus. *This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:  Will the Insurrection Act or a state of martial law be declared in relation to the 2026 U.S. midterms?* The [Insurrection Act of 1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807#:~:text=The%20Insurrection%20Act%20of%201807,insurrection%2C%20and%20of%20armed%20rebellion) is a federal law that allows the U.S. president to deploy active-duty military forces or federalize the National Guard within the United States under specific circumstances, such as suppressing insurrection, enforcing federal law when states are unwilling or unable to do so, or protecting constitutional rights. Unlike most emergency powers, the Insurrection Act places [few procedural constraints on presidential discretion](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/insurrection-act-explained), which has led to longstanding debate over its scope and potential for abuse. U.S. courts have repeatedly held that martial law is constitutionally suspect and permissible only in the most extraordinary circumstances, particularly [where civilian courts remain functional](https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/71/2/). The Insurrection Act has been invoked sparingly in modern history, most notably during [desegregation efforts in the 1950s–60s and during the 1992 Los Angeles riots](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/guide-invocations-insurrection-act). More recently, its potential use has been [publicly discussed](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/what-is-the-insurrection-act-heres-what-trump-has-said-about-using-it) — though not invoked — in response to civil unrest and election-related disputes, prompting renewed scrutiny from lawmakers and civil-military scholars. With reference to the [2026 U.S. midterm elections](https://gsi.s-rminform.com/articles/trouble-ahead-rising-political-tensions-foreshadow-2026-us-midterm-elections), questions about the Insurrection Act or martial law typically arise in relation to concerns about [election administration, civil unrest, contested results, or disruptions to voting or certification processes](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/insurrection-act-presidential-power-threatens-democracy#:~:text=And%20let's%20not%20forget%20Trump's,in%20Spanish%20by%20La%20Opini%C3%B3n.). U.S. elections are administered by states, and federal military involvement in election-related matters would represent a significant departure from normal practice. As a result, any invocation of the Insurrection Act or declaration resembling martial law tied to the 2026 midterms would likely trigger [immediate legal challenges](https://www.cnn.com/2025/10/21/politics/fact-check-insurrection-act-trump), congressional scrutiny, and [domestic and international attention.](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/us-trump-insurrection-act-threat-9.6931273)

Resolves: 1/21/2027.