Will the United States launch another strike against Islamic State in Nigeria before Christmas 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. On December 25, 2025, US President Donald J. Trump authorised the US military to [launch airstrikes against the Islamic State](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/12/25/trump-nigeria-christmas-strike-00706646) (IS) in Nigeria. [Militants were killed in camps run by the group in Sokoto state](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj69j8l918do) (in north-western Nigeria) in a joint operation with the Nigerian government. On Truth Social, US President Donald J. Trump said: > May God Bless our Military, and MERRY CHRISTMAS to all, including the dead Terrorists, of which there will be many more if their slaughter of Christians continues. Leading up to this, [US President Donald J. Trump had raised concerns about the safety Christians in Nigeria](https://www.newsweek.com/trump-issues-military-ultimatum-nigeria-killing-christians-10976902), due to some U.S. evangelical Christian groups and politicians stating that a deliberate campaign of extermination is taking place against Nigeria’s Christian population. [The US President threatened military intervention](https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2025/12/12/why-donald-trump-is-threatening-military-intervention-in-nigeria-and-what-it-means-for-the-government/) despite the [Nigerian government stating](https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/848622-trump-warns-of-more-us-strikes-in-nigeria.html) that there is no Christian genocide taking place in the country. On January 8, 2026, [the US President said there could be more US strikes in Nigeria](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01/08/us/trump-nyt-interview) if attacks on the country’s Christian population persist: > I’d love to make it a one-time strike … But if they continue to kill Christians, it will be a many-time strike.

Resolves: 12/31/2026.