Will the United States attack Colombia before 2027?

Prediction market on metaculus. In September 2025, the United States added Colombia to a list of nations [failing to cooperate in the drug war](https://apnews.com/article/trump-colombia-drug-war-cooperation-14493c8f7a9af102a8a29cc368ac1e03) for the first time in almost 30 years. The designation led to a slashing of US assistance to the country. [The Trump administration also imposed sanctions](https://apnews.com/article/trump-colombia-petro-sanctions-drug-trafficking-1b6ead338ec266b3df40859db6ee2d8d) in October 2025 on President Gustavo Petro, his family and a member of his government over accusations of involvement in the global drug trade. On January 5, 2026, US President [Donald J. Trump](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/trump-says-new-military-operation-focused-colombia-sounds-good-him-2026-01-05/) told reporters aboard Air Force One that military action against Colombia's government "sounds good to me": > "Colombia is very sick, too, run by a sick man, who likes making cocaine and selling it to the United States, and he's not going to be doing it very long," Trump told reporters... in an apparent reference to Colombia's President. Colombia’s outspoken left-wing President has responded to the US capture of [Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro](https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-maduro-capture-trump-attack-military-ceb21da088f0a06b1813e66922def9a3) by escalating his [spiraling war of words with the US President](https://apnews.com/article/colombia-petro-trump-venezuela-maduro-eaf98a41ae427a2d218910606a6fa3e0), stating it was an “abhorrent” violation of [Latin American sovereignty](https://apnews.com/photo-gallery/trump-venezuela-cuba-colombia-mexico-imperialism-600f77e9930aaf6cd856b4a384c51287). He also suggested it was committed by "enslavers" and constituted a "spectacle of death" comparable to Nazi Germany’s 1937 carpet bombing of Guernica, Spain. Despite this, just days later the [US President abruptly changed](https://apnews.com/article/trump-colombia-venezuela-petro-610cfdb86d38544712c3f673639845e1) his tone stating the two Presidents had exchanged a friendly phone call and he had invited the Colombian President to the White House. [The two countries have a historic alliance](https://apnews.com/article/colombia-petro-trump-venezuela-maduro-eaf98a41ae427a2d218910606a6fa3e0) but political tensions remain. > For Colombia, the U.S. remains key to the military’s fight against leftist guerrillas and drug traffickers. Washington has provided Bogotá with roughly \$14 billion in the last two decades. > For the U.S., Colombia remains the cornerstone of its counternarcotics strategy abroad, providing crucial intelligence used [to interdict drugs in the Caribbean](https://apnews.com/article/only-on-ap-smuggling-30c3e97599eb4b859ca575c58baab4ef).

Resolves: 1/12/2027.