Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election?

Prediction market on metaculus. The [2026 Ohio gubernatorial election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Ohio_gubernatorial_election) is scheduled to take place on November 3, 2026, to elect the next governor of Ohio. The primary elections will take place on May 5, 2026. Incumbent Republican Governor Mike DeWine is term-limited and cannot seek a third consecutive term. Once considered a key battleground state and bellwether, Ohio has shifted significantly to the right in the last decade. At the state level, Republicans hold [a government trifecta and a triplex](https://ballotpedia.org/State_government_trifectas_and_triplexes), and incumbent governor DeWine was re-elected in 2022 by a 25-point margin. In the 2024 presidential election, Republican candidate Donald Trump carried the state by 11.2 points, the widest margin of victory for any presidential nominee in the state since 1984.  [Vivek Ramaswamy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vivek_Ramaswamy?useskin=vector), born August 9, 1985, is an American billionaire entrepreneur and politician who was a biotechnology executive before running in the 2024 Republican presidential primaries. He withdrew from the race after finishing 4th in the [Iowa caucuses](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iowa_Republican_presidential_caucuses) and endorsed Donald Trump, who went on to win the Republican nomination and the 2024 presidential election. Ramaswamy was thereafter appointed by Trump to be a leader of the Department of Government Efficiency alongside Elon Musk, though [he left the effort days into Trump's term](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jan/21/vivek-ramaswamy-quits-doge-elon-musk), apparently at Musk's behest. Ramaswamy [announced in February 2025](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c86pwpy7vx6o) that he would seek the office of Governor of Ohio in the 2026 election, and was [endorsed by Trump ](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114062254652077484) on the same day. In May 2025, he was [endorsed by the Republican Party of Ohio.](https://apnews.com/article/election-2026-ohio-governor-vivek-ramaswamy-98be2b8f1a94e99f14b370e145e2939c) However, despite these endorsements and the strength of the Republican Party in the state in recent years, recent [polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Ohio_gubernatorial_election#General_election) has found the race very close, with Ramaswamy only marginally leading potential Democratic nominee Amy Acton. 

Resolves: 11/10/2026.