Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2028?

Prediction market on metaculus. [Peloton Interactive, Inc.](https://www.onepeloton.com/) is an American exercise equipment and media company based in New York City, USA founded in 2012. Peloton's main products are internet-connected stationary bicycles and treadmills that enable monthly subscribers to remotely participate in classes via streaming media. [The company went public in September 2019](https://www.reuters.com/article/business/peloton-raises-12-billion-after-ipo-prices-at-top-of-range-idUSKBN1WA30O/) and raised \$1.16 billion in its initial public offering after pricing shares at the top end of its target range. [In January 2021](https://companiesmarketcap.com/peloton/marketcap/), Peloton achieved a market capitalization of \$46.73 billion. Since that time, the company's stock has declined significantly (from a peak of over \$167 in January 2021 to under \$7 per share in January 2026) and has a market capitalization [in January 2026](https://companiesmarketcap.com/peloton/marketcap/) of less than \$3 billion. As reported by [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/24025034/peloton-bike-treadmill-connected-fitness-news), the company has struggled in recent years. > ... the supply chain issues with monthslong delays for bikes that irked new customers. Then, a disastrous recall affected both of its treadmills: the Tread Plus, because it injured several users and killed a small child, and the regular Tread, which hadn’t even launched yet because of a wobbly screen. And on top of all that, Peloton failed to account for a world reopening after the first covid-19 vaccines were released. Cue layoffs that came with a [free year of membership](https://www.theverge.com/2022/2/8/22923480/peloton-severance-package-membership-layoffs), a new CEO, and more gaffes than we can count. Cringey commercials, TV characters dying on their Peloton bikes — you name it.

Resolves: 1/10/2028.