Will the Trump administration attempt to withdraw from key international arms control agreements in 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. The First Trump Administration saw a pattern of withdrawing from international arms control agreements, including: * **INF Treaty (**[**2019**](https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/article/article/1924779/us-withdraws-from-intermediate-range-nuclear-forces-treaty/)**)** – U.S. withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty with Russia. * **Open Skies Treaty (**[**2020**](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2020-12/news/us-completes-open-skies-treaty-withdrawal)**)** – Trump announced withdrawal, citing Russian non-compliance. * **Iran Nuclear Deal (**[**2018**](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html)**)** – The U.S. exited the JCPOA, leading to renewed tensions. With Trump's return to office in 2025, attention has turned to whether his administration might again seek to exit existing arms control agreements. The agreements most at risk include: 1. [**New START**](https://www.state.gov/new-start-treaty) **(Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty)**, the last remaining U.S.-Russia nuclear arms control treaty, limiting strategic nuclear warheads and delivery systems. It is set to expire in February 2026, but there are concerns that Trump may refuse renewal or suspend compliance before then. 2. [**The Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC)**](https://www.opcw.org/chemical-weapons-convention), a global ban on chemical weapons with strong bipartisan support, but potential friction due to compliance disputes with China and Russia. 3. [**The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)**](https://disarmament.unoda.org/wmd/nuclear/npt/), the cornerstone of global nuclear non-proliferation. While withdrawal is unlikely, Trump has expressed skepticism toward arms control constraints in the past. 4. [**The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT)**](https://www.ctbto.org/our-mission/the-treaty), though never ratified by the U.S., Trump officials previously floated the idea of resuming nuclear testing.

Resolves: 1/1/2027.