Will NASA build a completed nuclear reactor on the moon before 2030?

Prediction market on metaculus. On May 23, 2025, US President Donald J. Trump signed an [Executive Order 14299 “Deploying Advanced Nuclear Reactor Technologies for National Security”](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/05/deploying-advanced-nuclear-reactor-technologies-for-national-security/). Under Section 2: > It is the policy of the United States to: > (a) ensure the rapid development, deployment, and use of advanced nuclear technologies to support national security objectives, such as the protection and operation of critical infrastructure, critical defense facilities, and other mission capability resources; > (b) enable private sector investment, innovation, development, and use of advanced nuclear technologies in the United States, recognizing their benefit to national security, by aligning incentives across the Federal Government to fully leverage federally owned uranium and plutonium resources declared excess to defense needs, related nuclear material, supply chain components, and research and development infrastructure; and > (c) coordinate regulatory efforts across the Department of Defense and the Department of Energy, ensuring that these agencies optimize resources and risk allocation in accordance with their respective missions sets. On August 4, 2025, US transport secretary Sean Duffy, who was appointed temporary head of NASA by the US President, declared the [intent](https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/nasa-fsp-directive-aug42.pdf?emrc=4b2928) to put a nuclear reactor on the Moon by the first quarter of fiscal year 2030.  > Executive Summary • Fission surface power (FSP) is both an essential and sustainable segment of the lunar and Mars power architectures for future human space exploration missions. • The FSP project leverages innovation in commercial microreactor technologies specifically referenced in the White House’s 23 May 2025 Executive Order 14299 “Deploying Advanced Nuclear Reactor Technologies for National Security”. • To properly advance this critical technology to be able to support a future lunar economy, high power energy generation on Mars, and to strengthen our national security in space, it is imperative the agency move quickly. As reported by [the BBC](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cev2dylxv74o), "questions remain about how realistic the goal and timeframe are, given recent and steep Nasa budget cuts, and some scientists are concerned that the plans are driven by geopolitical goals." The idea of building a nuclear reactor as a power source on the Moon is not new (in 2022 [Nasa issued three \$5m contracts to companies to design a reactor](https://www.powermag.com/nasa-picks-three-nuclear-power-concepts-for-demonstration-on-the-moon/)) as it appears to be ["the only technological option available" - "it’s ambitious, but definitely possible"](https://www.innovationnewsnetwork.com/inside-us-plans-to-build-a-nuclear-reactor-on-the-moon-by-2030/60683/).

Resolves: 1/10/2030.