Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. There are [currently](https://www.whitecase.com/insight-our-thinking/ai-watch-global-regulatory-tracker-united-states) no comprehensive US federal laws or regulations imposing safety regulations on AI development or deployment.  President Donald Trump was inaugurated on January 20, 2025, and three days later he [rescinded](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/removing-barriers-to-american-leadership-in-artificial-intelligence/) President Joe Biden's EO 14110: "\[revoking] certain existing AI policies and directives that act as barriers to American AI innovation, clearing a path for the United States to act decisively to retain global leadership in artificial intelligence."  Biden's order had required companies developing AI models to file reports with the US government on security measures and on its red-team cybersecurity tests. Sriram Krishnan, Senior White House Policy Advisor on Artificial Intelligence, [told](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/white-house-congress-single-framework-142447823.html) CNBC on December 12, 2025 that the Trump Administration would be working with Congress on "a single national framework" regarding development of AI, "which makes sure ⁠we can win this race." One bill introduced in September 2025, [S. 2938](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-bill/2938/cosponsors)**,** co-sponsored by Senators Josh Hawley (R-MO) and Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), would prohibit the deployment of an advanced AI system in interstate or foreign commerce unless the developer participates in a program to evaluate model safety.

Resolves: 1/1/2027.