Will humans be sent to Mars before 2036 and successfully land?

Prediction market on metaculus. *This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will humans land on Mars by 2035?* Human missions to Mars have long been a [goal of both NASA](https://www.space.com/nasa-aims-for-2035-mars-landings-iac.html?) and commercial space companies, but achieving a crewed landing on the Red Planet remains a massive technical, financial, and logistical challenge. NASA’s [“Human Path to Mars”](https://science.nasa.gov/resource/nasas-human-path-to-mars/?) roadmap envisions sending astronauts to Mars in the 2030s, relying on technologies such as Orion capsules, heavy-lift rockets, in-situ resource utilization, and lunar infrastructure as stepping stones.[ ](https://science.nasa.gov/resource/nasas-human-path-to-mars/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) NASA’s most recent [20-year Mars Exploration Plan (2024–2044)](https://assets.science.nasa.gov/content/dam/science/psd/solar-system/mars/campaigns/mars-future-plan/20241204_Mars_Future_Plan_Final_Print.pdf?) highlights key preparatory work in the early 2030s, including identifying safe landing sites, characterizing Martian ice-rich regions, and studying atmospheric conditions like dust storms which could affect both landing and takeoff.[ ](https://assets.science.nasa.gov/content/dam/science/psd/solar-system/mars/campaigns/mars-future-plan/20241204_Mars_Future_Plan_Final_Print.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com)While the plan outlines scientific priorities and risk mitigation, it does *not* definitively commit to a crewed landing by 2035. On the commercial front, [SpaceX continues to push an ambitious timeline for Mars](https://www.spacex.com/humanspaceflight/mars). Elon Musk and company have [publicly floated first crewed Starship flights to Mars in the late 2020s](https://aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org/features/a-closer-look-at-spacexs-mars-plan/?), depending on the success of uncrewed test missions and the build-out of infrastructure.[ ](https://aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org/features/a-closer-look-at-spacexs-mars-plan/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)However, these projections remain highly speculative — [dependent on technological breakthroughs, funding, and regulatory approvals](https://www.space.com/space-exploration/private-spaceflight/humanity-could-settle-mars-by-2055-elon-musk-says?). Outside the U.S., several national space agencies have articulated long-term human Mars ambitions, though nearly all extend beyond the 2030s: * China ([CNSA](https://www.cnsa.gov.cn/english/)) – China has announced intentions to [send taikonauts to Mars in the 2040s](https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Portals/10/CASI/documents/Research/Space/2025-05-05%20The%20Real%20Space%20Race%20China%20Will%20Send%20a%20Crew%20to%20Orbit%20Mars%20by%202050.pdf?ver=5pT8gZsloeqXRiv3F43GnA%3D%3D), with an initial crewed landing followed by a surface base by the 2050s. * European Space Agency ([ESA](https://www.esa.int/)) – [ESA leadership has discussed pursuing a human Mars mission around 2040](https://www.esa.int/About_Us/ESA_Strategy_2040), dependent on international partnerships and long-term funding. * Russia ([Roscosmos](https://www.iafastro.org/membership/all-members/roscosmos.html)) – Russia has [floated timelines for a crewed Mars landing in the late 2030s or early 2040s](https://tass.com/science/1177101), although current geopolitical and budgetary constraints have cast doubt on these plans. * India ([ISRO](https://www.isro.gov.in/)) – India’s [Mars ambitions](https://www.arabnews.com/node/2611896/amp) are phased: precursor missions in the 2030s–2040s, with a possible human Mars mission closer to the 2060s. * United Arab Emirates (UAE) – The [UAE’s Mars 2117](https://www.uae2117marsexpedition.com/) initiative targets a long-term, collaborative plan to build a human settlement on Mars by 2117. There is also skepticism from independent analyses. For example, a report from 2019 argued that a crewed Mars landing in the early 2030s is not feasible under existing U.S. deep-space budgets, citing [huge costs for propulsion systems, surface infrastructure, launch vehicles, and life-support systems](https://www.space.com/human-mars-mission-is-not-feasible.html?).[ ](https://www.space.com/human-mars-mission-is-not-feasible.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com)Given the scale, complexity, and risk, many experts view 2035 as an optimistic target rather than a sure one.

Resolves: 2/1/2036.