Will the FDA approve a psilocybin treatment during 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. [Psilocybin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psilocybin) is a hallucinogenic drug that is naturally produced in over 200 species of [mushroom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psilocybin_mushroom). [Illegal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legal_status_of_psilocybin_mushrooms) in most of the world, the drug has been studied as a possible treatment for various psychiatric disorders, including depression, OCD, and PTSD. Although approved for medical use in countries such as [Australia and Czechia](https://balkaninsight.com/2025/07/02/psychedelic-healing-czechia-opens-mind-to-magic-mushroom-therapy/) and even fully legal in countries such as [Jamaica](https://www.vice.com/en/article/jamaica-magic-mushrooms-legal-loophole/), the United States FDA has so far [declined to approve](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/fda-rejects-psychedelic-mdma-assisted-therapy-ptsd-rcna165531) psilocybin treatment. Psilocybin is illegal on the [federal level](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psilocybin_decriminalization_in_the_United_States) and classified as a Schedule 1 substance, but has been decriminalized and legalized for medical use in various states, while the FDA may approve treatments regardless of its Schedule 1 status.

Resolves: 1/1/2027.