Will the first deliveries of the flying car ASKA A5 happen before 2028?

Prediction market on metaculus. [Flying cars have captured human imagination long before the 20th century](https://flyingcarinsider.com/blog/the-evolution-of-flying-cars-a-historical-perspective/), "found in the pages of fiction and the blueprints of visionaries". But the challenge of commercially available flying cars is not just the technological requirements. Financing such a venture as well as all the safety, traffic management, privacy, noise pollution and infrastructure limitations has made [mass-produced flying cars a pipe dream](https://prelaunch.com/product-blog/history-of-flying-cars) for centuries. In March 2018, [ASKA was launched](https://www.askafly.com/about-us) and began developing the world’s first roadable electric-hybrid vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) vehicle. The founders were "serial entrepreneurs with a proven track record of guiding innovative technologies from concept to commercialization".  On June 11, 2019, [a scale "demonstrator" model of the ASKA flying car concept](https://newatlas.com/aska-evtol-flying-car/60073/) was presented at the EcoMotion show in Tel Aviv, Israel. On April 15, 2021, [the company announced it was taking pre-orders](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/announcing-aska-the-electric-take-off-and-landing-flying-car-for-consumers-301269806.html) for the ASKA, the first electric VTOL vehicle designed for consumers. A special limited edition of ASKA was available for preorder and priced at \$789,000. Interested buyers could place a \$5,000 deposit. On July 1, 2025, [the company announced the acquisition of Eagle Field](https://www.askafly.com/aska-founders-acquire-historic-eagle-field-airport), a private airport located in Fresno County, California with the aim of relocating its operations from Mountain View. ASKA also announced that in May 2025 the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) granted two important approvals to continue flight testing: > 1\) Renewal of the ASKA A5 prototype’s airworthiness certificate as an Experimental R\&D Unmanned Aircraft, following an inspection; > 2\) Certificate of Waiver or Authorization (COA) approving Eagle Field as one of the test sites with an expanded flight test area. Although the first deliveries had been estimated [as early as 2026](https://robbreport.com/motors/aviation/new-flying-car-size-of-an-suv-1234607673/), [the current pre-order webpage of the ASKA website](https://www.askafly.com/pre-order) states "deliveries are expected to start by 2028".

Resolves: 1/10/2028.