Will there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. On 15 April 2023, Sudan collapsed into [civil war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudanese_civil_war_\(2023%E2%80%93present\)) between the [Rapid Support Forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rapid_Support_Forces) (RSF) and the [Sudanese Armed Forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudanese_Armed_Forces) (SAF). Following the [2021 Sudanese Coup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Sudanese_coup_d'%C3%A9tat) and subsequent ousting of former leader [Omar al-Bashir](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omar_al-Bashir), the rival factions gained substantial control of Sudan. Although initially promising elections, tensions between the two forces escalated, and the RSF began to recruit soldiers before mobilizing on April 13, and attacking SAF bases on April 15, 2025. The civil war has led to hundreds of thousands dead and displaced millions, while [famine struck](https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/news-stories/stories/sudans-children-are-suffering-how-conflict-destroying-their-future_en) across the nation. On 22 May, 2025, a brief one day [ceasefire was agreed](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-65683681), however following it's collapse, little concrete action has been taken towards peace.

Resolves: 1/1/2027.