Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. Since the end of the [Chinese Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Civil_War) and the fleeing of the [Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan) (ROC) to Taiwan, the [People's Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China) (PRC) has attempted to gain control over the island. During the 20th century, there were [numerous spikes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_Strait_Crises) in tension, with the PRC and ROC engaging in active combat during the earlier history. In the 2010s and 2020s, tensions have ramped up once again, with repeated [PRC incursions](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/china-taiwan-military-nato-summit-b2577926.html) into the ROC's airspace, PRC warships [encountering](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/new-zealand-navy-encountered-taiwan-warship-during-strait-transit-last-month-2025-12-09/) ROC warships, and a reaffirming of the PRC long standing position that it may use military force to unify with the ROC.

Resolves: 1/1/2027.