Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?

Prediction market on metaculus. Following the [full-scale outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_war_\(2022%E2%80%93present\)) of fighting between Russia and Ukraine, ceasefire proposals have repeatedly been sought by numerous groups. Following Donald Trump's return to the White House, many speculated about the possibility of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. However, although Trump has [repeatedly engaged](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_negotiations_in_the_Russo-Ukrainian_war_\(2022%E2%80%93present\)#2025_developments) in negotiations, and numerous plans have been proposed, a mutually agreeable ceasefire has yet to be found. On November 19, 2025, the U.S presented it's most recent proposal, with a [28 point plan](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-administration-proposed-28-point-russia-ukraine-peace-plan/), including a barring of Ukraine from NATO, recognition of Russia's gained territory, and a U.S security guarantee for Ukraine. 

Resolves: 1/1/2027.