Will the S&P 500 close above 7,500 at the end of 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. Each year over the 24-year period through 2024, an average of 64% of active fund managers [underperformed](https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/spiva/spiva-us-year-end-2024.pdf) the S\&P 500 index. Over the most recent 5 year period as of June 30, 2025, 87% of large cap funds [underperformed. ](https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/research-insights/spiva/)  [Introduced](https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/education/spdji-where-it-all-began.pdf) in 1957, the S\&P 500 is a simple market cap-weighted [passive](https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Passive_management) index of approximately 500 stocks (see list of companies [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_S%26P_500_companies)). The largest exchange-traded fund allowing individual investors to capture the annual returns of the S\&P 500 is the [Vanguard 500 ETF](https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/voo).  At the time of this question, December 8, 2025, the S\&P 500 closed at 6,846.51, 7,500 would be a 9.5% increase from that value. Over the 69 years of data since 1957, the S\&P 500 has had 37 years (53%) that were greater than or equal to 9.5%.  Over the past 15 years, the S\&P 500 has had the following returns:  | Date | Value | Annual increase | | ----------- | -------- | --------------- | | Jan 1, 2025 | 5,979.52 | 24.46% | | Jan 1, 2024 | 4,804.49 | 21.31% | | Jan 1, 2023 | 3,960.66 | -13.41% | | Jan 1, 2022 | 4,573.82 | 20.56% | | Jan 1, 2021 | 3,793.75 | 15.73% | | Jan 1, 2020 | 3,278.20 | 25.73% | | Jan 1, 2019 | 2,607.39 | -6.54% | | Jan 1, 2018 | 2,789.80 | 22.62% | | Jan 1, 2017 | 2,275.12 | 18.58% | | Jan 1, 2016 | 1,918.60 | -5.40% | | Jan 1, 2015 | 2,028.18 | 11.29% | | Jan 1, 2014 | 1,822.36 | 23.10% | | Jan 1, 2013 | 1,480.40 | 13.83% | | Jan 1, 2012 | 1,300.58 | 1.40% | | Jan 1, 2011 | 1,282.62 | 14.15% | | Jan 1, 2010 | 1,123.58 | 29.81% | | Jan 1, 2009 | 865.58 | -37.22% | | Jan 1, 2008 | 1,378.76 | -3.19% | | Jan 1, 2007 | 1,424.16 | 11.37% | | Jan 1, 2006 | 1,278.73 | 8.24% | A spreadsheet of the S\&P 500's returns since 1957, along with other base rate calculations, can be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kurw_ntTMufbpPFjHh_Fo49c0NK3lHuVGmNOEyS25us/edit?gid=0#gid=0).  [Academic](https://www-2.rotman.utoronto.ca/~kan/3032/pdf/TestsOfMarketEfficiency/Fama_JF_1991.pdf) [evidence](https://fairwaywealth.com/wp-content/uploads/Vanguard-Research-11-30-2014.pdf) generally points to the near-impossibility of predicting stock returns in advance. Notably however, since the widespread rollout of ChatGPT at the end of November 2022, the S\&P 500's mean monthly return [has been](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1d9DcfWafiP91QATX8FkKHSk4EOiA9OUStXnF7BrD3xU/edit?gid=0#gid=0) 1.44%, which is three times higher than the long-term mean monthly return of 0.48%. Some, such as investor Cathie Wood, [have argued](https://youtu.be/QbiJVmAUtEQ?si=hdvF7lc7tTpur2Wy\&t=2426) that this increased return could be from anticipated future higher profits due to AI replacing costly human employees; others, such as investor Howard Marks [question](https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/is-it-a-bubble) whether there might be a bubble in AI-related stocks.

Resolves: 1/1/2027.