Will the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. According to [the WHO](https://www.who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/emergencies-international-health-regulations-and-emergency-committees):  > A PHEIC is defined in the IHR (2005) as, “an extraordinary event which is determined to constitute a public health risk to other States through the international spread of disease and to potentially require a coordinated international response”. This definition implies a situation that is: > * serious, sudden, unusual or unexpected; > * carries implications for public health beyond the affected State’s national border; and > * may require immediate international action. In articles adopted in 2024, WHO further [added](https://www.who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/pandemic-prevention--preparedness-and-response-accord) a "pandemic emergency" to its PHEIC mechanisms: > [The amendments to the International Health Regulations](https://apps.who.int/gb/ebwha/pdf_files/WHA77/A77_ACONF14-en.pdf), agreed by the Seventy-seventh World Health Assembly on 1 June 2024, include the definition of a Pandemic Emergency, which represents the new highest level of alarm contained within the IHR and available for use by the WHO Director-General. > The Pandemic Emergency definition builds on the existing mechanisms of the IHR, including the determination of public health emergency of international concern. > A Pandemic Emergency aims to trigger a more effective international collaboration in response to events that are at risk of becoming, or have become, a pandemic. In January 2025, the Metaculus Community [was](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30763/will-an-h5-pheic-be-declared-by-the-who-before-2026/) as high as a 30% assessed probability that WHO could declare a PHEIC before year-end over H5 avian influenza, though it declined to less than 10% by April. In November 2025, the first human known to be infected with the H5N5 strain [died](https://abcnews.go.com/US/1st-human-infected-h5n5-strain-bird-flu-dies/story?id=127774354) in Washington state. Historically, PHEICs were declared in 7 out of the 17 years in the 2009-2025 period (41%): | Number | Outbreak | Pathogen | PHEIC declaration date | PHEIC ended / ongoing | | ------ | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------ | ---------------------- | --------------------- | | 1 | [2009–2010 H1N1 (swine flu) pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_pandemic) | Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 | 26 Apr 2009 | 10 Aug 2010 | | 2 | [Polio (2014–present) PHEIC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_health_emergency_of_international_concern#Polio_%282014%E2%80%93present%29) | Wild poliovirus & cVDPV | 5 May 2014 | Ongoing | | 3 | [Western African Ebola epidemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_African_Ebola_epidemic) | Ebola virus (Zaire ebolavirus) | 8 Aug 2014 | 29 Mar 2016 | | 4 | [2015–16 Zika virus epidemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015%E2%80%9316_Zika_virus_epidemic) | Zika virus | 1 Feb 2016 | 18 Nov 2016 | | 5 | [Kivu Ebola epidemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kivu_Ebola_epidemic) | Ebola virus (Zaire ebolavirus) | 17 Jul 2019 | 26 Jun 2020 | | 6 | [COVID‑19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) | SARS‑CoV‑2 | 30 Jan 2020 | 5 May 2023 | | 7 | [2022–2023 mpox outbreak (clade II)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932023_mpox_outbreak) | Mpox virus, clade IIb | 23 Jul 2022 | 11 May 2023 | | 8 | [2023–2025 mpox epidemic (clade I)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023%E2%80%932025_mpox_epidemic) | Mpox virus, clade Ib | 14 Aug 2024 | 5 Sep 2025 |

Resolves: 1/1/2027.