Will the winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup be a country that has never won before?

Prediction market on metaculus. The [FIFA World Cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Cup) is a quadrennial [football](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Association_football) competition organised by FIFA. The [2026 edition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA_World_Cup), set to be jointly hosted Canada, Mexico and the United States, will take place from June 11 to July 19 2026. Despite beginning in 1930 and hosting competitions every 4 years, outside of World War 2, only a total of [8 countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_FIFA_World_Cup_finals) have ever won the title.

Resolves: 7/19/2026.