Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. The United States has recently [experienced mixed](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) GDP growth. During 2024, GDP growth ranged from +0.8% up to +3.6% each quarter. During 2025, Q1 dropped substantially to -0.6% growth, while Q2 recovered to +3.8%. The Bureau of Economic Analysis currently releases [3 successive estimates](https://www.bea.gov/news/blog/2015-07-13/why-does-bea-revise-gdp-estimates) for each quarter, with the final estimate released several months after the given quarter.

Resolves: 1/1/2027.