If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?

Prediction market on manifold. Duplicate of https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/if-artificial-general-intelligence with user-submitted answers. An outcome is "okay" if it gets at least 20% of the maximum attainable cosmopolitan value that could've been attained by a positive Singularity (a la full Coherent Extrapolated Volition done correctly), and existing humans don't suffer death or any other awful fates.

Liquidity: $17,736. Resolves: 1/2/2200.