Who will win the 2026 Fields Medals?

Prediction market on manifold. Every person who wins resolves to 25% (assuming it's 4 people who split it equally, in general we split it). It's very silly to bet people over 25%. In principle the Fields Medal could be awarded to fewer than four people but that's unlikely. I will resolve this as soon as I find out and not do any last-minute trading before resolving it. Update 2026-01-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Someone who declines a Fields Medal award will still count as a winner for resolution purposes (as occurred in 2006 with Grigori Perelman).

24h Volume: $81.679. Liquidity: $1,950. Resolves: 7/2/2026.