World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)
Prediction market on manifold. Nominal US Dollars, not PPP adjusted, not inflation adjusted. Resolves prob to 10*((world gdp 2100 / world gdp 2023)^(1/77)-1) If dollars cease to exist during the interval, I'll use the next largest fiat currency at the last available exchange rate from dollars to that currency. (e.g., if 1 USD = 4 Yuan just before the dollar ceases to exist, then the 2100 world gdp will be measured in Yuan and divided by 4 to convert it to the dollars that no longer exist) Related arb-able markets: (https://manifold.markets/embed/JonathanRay/what-will-be-the-annualized-nominal)(https://manifold.markets/embed/JonathanRay/what-will-be-the-relative-change-in-c6b0e4fca80a)
Liquidity: $10,470. Resolves: 2/1/2101.