Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?
Prediction market on manifold. To prevent private market shenanigans it will have to be 2 $1bn+ valuation rounds in series, or an acquisition, IPO or direct listing at $1bn+. For public markets valuations I will take the valuation at the close of the trading day. EDIT - 2025/08/28 The $1bn amount will be adjusted for inflation using CPI index for year end 2023 as the base year. My discretion will be used to adjudicate how contractor use applies to the “one person” criteria. I will not bet in this market. Inspired by Sam Altman’s latest comments here: https://x.com/andrewmichaelio/status/1752909423826067776?s=46&t=va-CTu7Has7Aq_D1_X5Thw
Liquidity: $10,000. Resolves: 1/2/2031.