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Prediction market on manifold. Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2030, the U.S. federal government opens applications for a fellowship program that closely resembles the Presidential Management Fellows (PMF) Program, which was discontinued in February 2025. The new program must meet the following criteria: Target Audience: Aimed at individuals with advanced degrees (e.g., master's, doctoral, or professional degrees). Program Duration: Offers a structured, time-limited fellowship of up to two years (+/- 6 months). Career Development: Focuses on leadership development and training within federal agencies. Path to Employment: Provides a noncompetitive conversion pathway to employment in the civil service upon successful completion, though continued work in government is not required as a formal condition or expectation of becoming a fellow. Fellows who continue careers in the federal government can count fellowship years toward pension benefits (or other benefits conditional on length of federal government employment). If no such program opens applications by the end of 2030, the market will resolve to "No." Background: The Presidential Management Fellows (PMF) Program was established in 1977 to attract highly qualified individuals with advanced degrees to federal service, placing fellows in executive branch agencies for up to two years. In February 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order titled “Commencing the Reduction of the Federal Bureaucracy,” which, among other things, terminated the PMF Program. As of April 2025, no new federal fellowship program has been announced to replace the PMF Program. For more details, see: https://emergingtechpolicy.org/pathways/policy-fellowships/pmf/
Liquidity: $10,000. Resolves: 12/31/2030.