Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?

Prediction market on manifold. Resolves upon publication of the 2025 DHS Yearbook of Immigration Statistics, or earlier if official DHS data is available that can reasonably be expected to contain identical data to what will be in the Yearbook: https://ohss.dhs.gov/topics/immigration/yearbook The US nonimmigrant inadmissibility rate for the purposes of this market is defined as: rate = inadmissible / (admissions + inadmissible) If this rate is at least three times as high in 2025 as it was in 2024, the market resolves YES. Otherwise it resolves NO. Both the 2025 and 2024 rates will be calculated from data published in the 2025 yearbook, disregarding any data in the 2024 yearbook. As an example, in the 2022 yearbook of immigration statistics: https://ohss.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/2024-03/2023_0818_plcy_yearbook_immigration_statistics_fy2022.pdf Total nonimmigrant admissions (Table 25, page 65): 2021: 35,300,000 2022: 96,800,000 Inadmissibility determinations are (Table 37, page 98): 2021: 294,351 2022: 551,928 Therefore the inadmissibility rate is: 2021: 0.83% 2022: 0.57% Potentially more timely publication of some of the same data can be found here: https://ohss.dhs.gov/topics/immigration Though I'm yet to see a data table other than that in the Yearbook that includes all nonimmigrant admissions, and not only I-94 admissions. [image]

Liquidity: $10,000. Resolves: 12/31/2026.