Will Trump ban U.S. states from using mail-in ballots for the 2026 Midterm Elections?

Prediction market on metaculus. *This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will Trump ban US states from using mail-in ballots by the 2026 Midterm Elections?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-Trump-ban-US-states-from-using-mailin-ballots-by-the-Midterm-Elections) Debate over [mail-in voting](https://electionlab.mit.edu/research/voting-mail-and-absentee-voting) in the United States has grown since the [2020 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election), when the [COVID-19 pandemic led many states to expand the use of absentee and mail-in ballots to reduce in-person contact](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/mail-voting-what-has-changed-2020). These changes were supported by many election officials as a way to maintain turnout and election safety, and they were used widely again in 2024. About [30% of ballots in the 2024 elections](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5379475-mail-ballots-2024-presidential-election-research/) were cast by mail, with [all 50 states offering some form of mail or absentee voting](https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/table-1-states-with-no-excuse-absentee-voting) and many allowing “no-excuse” mail-in ballots (meaning voters don’t need a reason to vote by mail). [During his second term as president (following reelection in 2024)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_presidency_of_Donald_Trump#:~:text=Trump%2C%20upon%20taking%20office%2C%20became,his%20conviction%20in%20May%202024.), Donald Trump has repeatedly [criticized mail-in voting](https://thefulcrum.us/governance-legislation/trump-mail-in-ballots-ban?), arguing without evidence that it leads to fraud and should be ended. In August 2025 he [publicly pledged to lead a movement and sign an executive order](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-vows-end-use-mail-in-ballots-ahead-2026-midterm-election-2025-08-18/?) aimed at ending mail-in ballots ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, claiming the change would [bring “honesty” to the process](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-ban-mail-in-voting-before-2026-midterm-elections/). Under the U.S. Constitution, states have primary authority to determine “[the times, places and manner”](https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/essay/artI-S4-C1-2/ALDE_00013577/) of running elections, including whether to offer mail-in voting; Congress can set some federal standards but cannot by itself strip this basic authority from states. [Article I, Section 4 ](https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/article-1/section-4/)makes clear that states administer elections, and legal experts have noted that [a president cannot unilaterally ban mail-in ballots in state elections](https://protectdemocracy.org/work/no-the-president-cant-ban-mail-voting/). Efforts by the Trump administration to alter election procedures — such as a [March 2025 executive order](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/03/preserving-and-protecting-the-integrity-of-american-elections/) seeking to require proof of citizenship and tighten ballot deadlines — have already [faced legal challenges](https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/federal-court-blocks-key-parts-of-trumps-anti-voting-order-restores-states-control-over-elections/?). Some provisions were blocked by courts, with judges ruling the federal government overstepped its authority in trying to dictate how states run elections. As of early February 2026, Trump continues to advocate for federal action on election administration, including [suggestions that Republicans “nationalize” election processes](https://www.politico.com/news/2026/02/02/trump-nationalize-elections-2026-midterms-00760015) in certain areas and broaden federal involvement — rhetoric that critics say conflicts with constitutional limits. Election law scholars and state officials maintain that [any attempt to ban mail-in voting outright would likely be challenged and struck down in court](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crev0n5vlp0o) because states independently set their voting rules. Moreover, [public polling shows continued broad support for mail-in voting among the electorate.](https://reason.com/2025/08/25/most-americans-oppose-trumps-plan-to-ban-mail-in-voting/?)

Resolves: 11/4/2026.