How will Trump leave office?

Prediction market on manifold. Background Donald Trump has been elected to a second term as President of the United States, which began on January 20, 2025. The Constitution limits presidents to two terms under the 22nd Amendment. There are several ways a president can leave office, including completing their term, resignation, impeachment and removal, invocation of the 25th Amendment, or death in office. Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the option that best describes how Donald Trump leaves the presidency. Only one option can resolve as YES: At the end of his term in 2029: Resolves YES if Trump serves until January 20, 2029, when his successor is inaugurated. Impeached, tried, and removed: Resolves YES if the House impeaches Trump, the Senate convicts him with a two-thirds majority vote, and he is removed from office. Resignation: Resolves YES if Trump voluntarily resigns from office before the end of his term, regardless of whether impeachment proceedings have begun. 25th Amendment removal: Resolves YES if Trump is removed from office through the 25th Amendment process, which requires either a majority of his cabinet declaring him unfit or a two-thirds vote in both houses of Congress. Death in office: Resolves YES if Trump dies while serving as president, causing the Vice President to assume the presidency. 22nd Amendment repealed, wins third term: Resolves YES if the 22nd Amendment is repealed through the constitutional amendment process and Trump subsequently wins a third term in the 2028 election. Seizes power through coup: Resolves YES if Trump refuses to leave office after his constitutional term ends or otherwise seizes power through extra-constitutional means. If Trump's departure from office doesn't clearly fit any of these categories, the market creator may add additional options as needed. Update 2025-04-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Important Clarification: Trump's Eligibility: Trump is constitutionally ineligible to serve a third term, and the 12th Amendment prevents any ineligible individual from serving as Vice President. Unconstitutional Means: Any scenario that attempts to circumvent these constitutional limits—such as using a vice presidential candidacy to enable an extra-constitutional transition of power—will be resolved under the option for remaining in power through unconstitutional means. Update 2025-08-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question about a scenario where the 2024 election is found to be fraudulent, the creator clarified: The discovery of a corrupt election is not a resolution event in itself, as Trump has already been sworn in. His departure from office would still need to occur through one of the established mechanisms. The market would resolve based on that specific action (e.g., Impeachment, Resignation, 25th Amendment). If no such action is taken and he completes his term, it would resolve based on how he ultimately leaves office. Update 2025-08-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question about defenestration (being thrown from a window), the creator has clarified: If this event leads to death, it will be resolved under the Death in office option. If he survives such an event, he would still be president, and this would not be a resolving event.

24h Volume: $95.506. Liquidity: $3,100. Resolves: 1/21/2029.