Will any FAA-certified eVTOL passenger service be open to the general public in at least one U.S. city before Jan. 1, 2027?

Prediction market on metaculus. *This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will any FAA certified eVTOL passenger service be open to the general public in at least one U.S. city by Dec. 31, 2026?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/will-any-faa-cerified-evtol-passenger-service-be-open-to-the-general-public-in-at-least-one-us-city-by-december-31-2026) [Electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EVTOL) are a new category of electrically powered “air taxis” designed to take off and land vertically and carry passengers on short urban or regional routes. The [U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) ](https://www.faa.gov/)has created a regulatory framework for eVTOLs in the [powered-lift category](https://www.faa.gov/newsroom/new-rule-faa-ready-air-travel-future), including pilot qualifications and safety requirements, but aircraft must still complete a [rigorous type certification process](https://www.faa.gov/air-taxis) before they can operate commercially with paying passengers. This [type certification](https://www.faa.gov/uas/advanced_operations/certification) ensures safety and airworthiness similar to traditional aircraft categories. No eVTOL passenger aircraft has yet received full FAA type certification for commercial operations. Major U.S. developers — particularly Joby Aviation — are progressing through the certification process, with [Joby’s first FAA-conforming aircraft](https://www.militaryaerospace.com/commercial-aerospace/news/55329157/joby-aviation-begins-power-on-testing-of-first-faa-conforming-evtol-aircraft?) now undergoing power-on and flight testing before FAA pilot testing begins. Completion of the final certification steps is widely seen as critical before routine commercial service can begin.[ ](https://www.militaryaerospace.com/commercial-aerospace/news/55329157/joby-aviation-begins-power-on-testing-of-first-faa-conforming-evtol-aircraft?utm_source=chatgpt.com) Because full type certification is still underway, independent industry analysis has projected that the first FAA-certified eVTOL aircraft may not be certified [until 2027 or later](https://www.revolution.aero/news/2025/01/17/us-air-taxi-certification-likely-pushed-to-2027/?), with some experts suggesting even later timelines if all testing and regulatory requirements extend beyond 2026.[ ](https://www.revolution.aero/news/2025/01/17/us-air-taxi-certification-likely-pushed-to-2027/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) To bridge this gap, the FAA launched the [Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing Integration Pilot Program (eIPP)](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/09/16/2025-17844/electric-vertical-takeoff-and-landing-and-advanced-air-mobility-integration-pilot) in September 2025, which allows selected public–private teams to begin limited commercial eVTOL operations (such as fare-based air taxi routes) in 2026 before full aircraft certification is complete. These [pilot projects](https://www.visaverge.com/news/faa-launches-eipp-pilot-to-integrate-evtol-and-aam-in-u-s-skies/?) are intended to gather operational and safety data and do not equate to standard commercial services offered to the general public by fully certified aircraft.[ ](https://www.visaverge.com/news/faa-launches-eipp-pilot-to-integrate-evtol-and-aam-in-u-s-skies/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)

Resolves: 1/1/2027.