If Trump dies while in office, will the market go up or go down?

Prediction market on manifold. YES=UP, NO=Down Resolution criteria: Resolves "Yes" if, following the death (any cause) of President Donald Trump while in office, the S&P 500 Index closes higher on the first full trading day after the announcement of his death compared to its closing value on the last full trading day before the announcement. Resolves "No" if the S&P 500 Index closes lower. Resolves "N/A" if Trump finishes his second term.

Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/19/2029.