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Prediction market on manifold. (This settles EOY if necessary but we will surely know much sooner) Resolution criteria The market resolves YES if independent testing confirms the Donut Battery contains less than 0.1% lithium by weight. The market resolves NO if testing confirms lithium content at or above 0.1% by weight. Resolution will be determined by peer-reviewed analysis, official company disclosure with third-party verification, or independent laboratory testing from credible institutions (e.g., VTT Technical Research Centre, university materials science departments, or certified battery analysis labs). Links to testing results and composition data will serve as primary resolution sources. Background Donut Lab announced at CES 2026 that it had developed an all-solid-state battery with claimed energy density of 400 Wh/kg, five-minute charging capability, 100,000-cycle lifespan, and materials made from "100% green and abundant materials with global availability." After initial test results were published, several battery experts publicly challenged the claim that the cell operates without lithium, with specialists pointing out that charging curves and additional data indicated it could be a lithium-ion cell. The company could be using an anode-free sodium-metal battery instead of lithium metal anodes. Related markets: https://manifold.markets/AristotelisKostelenos/will-i-deem-donut-labs-solid-state https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/donut-battery-powered-car-delivered Update 2026-03-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the Donut Battery turns out to be a scam, the market will still attempt to resolve based on whether lithium is present in the actual battery (i.e., independent testing of whatever physical product exists).
24h Volume: $316.571. Liquidity: $100,000. Resolves: 1/1/2027.