[RESTATED at https://www.metaculus.com/c/unjournal/42731/better-basis-for-a-well-being-metric-in-lmic-interventions-well_08/ (WELL_08)

Prediction market on metaculus. *Please predict at* [*https://www.metaculus.com/c/unjournal/42731/better-basis-for-a-well-being-metric-in-lmic-interventions-well\_08/*](https://www.metaculus.com/c/unjournal/42731/better-basis-for-a-well-being-metric-in-lmic-interventions-well_08/) *instead, we have rephrased it as a categorical question for greater clarity* **Question Code: WELL\_08** This question is part of The Unjournal's Pivotal Questions project on measuring well-being and the reliability of the WELLBY metric. In the contexts discussed above (welfare-relevant allocation decisions), would it be better to base the metric on a self-reported life satisfaction measure or instantaneous experience measures (e.g., happiness, affect)? State a probability that life satisfaction is better. I.e., "with what probability would basing the metric on life satisfaction yield a better (even marginally better) choice than basing it on instantaneous experience measures?" "Better”: Leads to the decisions that lead to the higher true welfare/average welfare’ on average, perhaps taking into account the cost of doing the measurements. ... In the particular relevant domain (e.g., in comparing mental health and disease interventions in Africa; see the ["focal case" here.](https://uj-wellbeing-workshop.netlify.app/linear-wellby-analysis))

Resolves: 1/11/2027.