Will the United Arab Emirates conduct a direct military strike against Iran before June 1, 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. Tensions between the United Arab Emirates and Iran have increased especially following [reported drone attacks affecting Fujairah](https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2795400-uae-s-fujairah-storage-tanks-hit-by-drones), on March 3, 2026. Drone strikes have also [damaged Amazon Web Services' data centers in the UAE and elsewhere](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/amazon-cloud-unit-flags-issues-bahrain-uae-data-centers-amid-iran-strikes-2026-03-02/). [These incidents](https://news.sky.com/video/fire-at-uaes-fujairah-oil-facility-as-drone-attack-intercepted-13514579) have intensified regional concern about escalation in the Gulf and have contributed to speculation about whether the UAE could take direct military action against Iran. Public and media discourse in the region has focused on the possibility of a broader confrontation, especially if Emirati leaders conclude that a direct operation alongside the United States would help protect key national ports and oil exports. 

Resolves: 5/31/2026.