Will Saudi Arabia conduct a direct military strike against Iran before June 1, 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. Tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran have increased following recent reported attacks, including the [incidents affecting Aramco facilities](https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/2/missile-debris-sparks-fire-at-saudis-aramco-oil-refinery) and the [attack on the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/03/03/cia-saudi-arabia-drone-attack-iran/). Public statements from Saudi officials have been widely perceived as unusually harsh toward Iran, while the U.S. president’s response to the embassy attack ([“You’ll find out soon”](https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/iran-us-israel-conflict-middle-east-saudi-arabia-claims-it-intercepted-8-iranian-drones-near-riyadh-al-kharj-11161624)) has fueled speculation about possible larger scale military retaliation. In the Arab world, commentators and observers have debated whether these developments could escalate into a broader regional conflict, including the possibility of direct Saudi military action against Iran.

Resolves: 6/1/2026.