Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?

Prediction market on manifold. Resolves YES if general consensus is that we are in another AI winter comparable to the AI winters of the 1970s and 1990s Resolves NO if general consensus is that we have realized AGI. Closing date will be moved forward perpetually untill either of the two resolution critera have been met.

Liquidity: $1,035. Resolves: 12/31/9999.