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Prediction market on manifold. On August 26th, Eliezer tweeted [tweet](https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1563282607315382273): In 2-4 years, if we're still alive, anytime you see a video this beautiful, your first thought will be to wonder whether it's real or if the AI's prompt was "beautiful video of 15 different moth species flapping their wings, professional photography, 8k, trending on Twitter". Will this tweet hold up? (The part about AI video generation, not about whether we'll all be dead in 2-4 years.) Giving max date range to be generous. This market resolves YES if at close (end of 2026) my subjective perception is that this was a good take--e.g., AI-generated video really is that good--and NO if it seems like Eliezer was importantly wrong about something, e.g., AI-generated video still sucks, or still couldn't be the cause for serious doubt about whether some random moth footage was made with a camera or not. I reserve the right to resolve to an early YES if it turns out Eliezer was obviously correct before the close date. I won't dock points if he ends up having been too conservative, e.g., a new model comes out in 6 months with perfect video generation capabilities. I guess this market resolves N/A if we all die, but, well, y'know. Betting policy: I will not bet in this market (any more than I already have, and I've long sold all my shares). Update 2026-05-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is resolving this market YES, stating that their enjoyment of a video was marred by wondering whether it was AI-generated.
Liquidity: $1,130. Resolves: 1/1/2027.