SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).

Prediction market on manifold. This market resolves to YES or NO as per the 2026 State of AI Report's self grading of its prediction #3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper). If they do not issue a ruling by EOY 2026, I will resolve by asking Anthropic's best model to evaluate based on their exact wording. [image]

Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 10/10/2026.