Prediction market on manifold. Resolves YES if anyone reports, and Robin Hanson does not contradict within 7 days, that they requested to talk to Robin Hanson about prediction markets, and got turned down. Resolves NO if this does not happen after 10 years. Update 2025-10-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - 7-day window starts after notification: The 7 days begin once Robin Hanson is notified of the report; if he does not contradict within that period, it counts. Obvious abuse/false reports may be ignored: The creator may use discretion to disregard clearly dishonest or spammy repeated claims. Update 2025-10-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on what counts as "turned down": A request to talk about prediction markets that is declined because the requester primarily wants to discuss their own grand theory (rather than genuinely discuss prediction markets) does NOT count as being "turned down" for purposes of this market's resolution.
Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 10/2/2035.