Will humans land on Mars and lift off from its surface to an altitude of at least 10 km by 2041?

Prediction market on manifold. Resolution criteria: The rocket has to use fuel synthesized on Mars The question is conditional on the U.S. population going down no more than 50% relative to the 2020 level - in case it gets lower, the question is voided.

Liquidity: $190. Resolves: 12/31/2040.