Grok 5 METR 50% time horizon

Prediction market on manifold. This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for any Grok 5 model released within a month of the first Grok 5 announcement. 50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time. See METR's Time Horizon 1.1 update for the technical definition. As of April 2026, frontier time horizons are around 12 hours, with a doubling time of roughly 4 months. [image]Left bounds inclusive, right bounds exclusive. See also: @APnLcl9A26 @zsdEyhOyPP @nRpZqZ5np5 @NClqRpg0yz @gZsNQCnsuh (this market) @LCNpQ6LN5U @n0ncl5cgpP

Liquidity: $1,500. Resolves: 4/30/2026.