R2 / V4-Thinking METR 50% time horizon

Prediction market on manifold. This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for any R2 model released within a month of the first R2 announcement. This market considers that a model released by DeepSeek named V4-thinking would count as R2. V4 would also count if it was natively a reasoning model. If separate models are released, one called V4 and one called R2, R2 will be considered for the purpose of this market. Generally the intent is for this market to resolve according to the model that is the next major iteration after R1. 50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time. See METR's Time Horizon 1.1 update for the technical definition. As of April 2026, frontier time horizons are around 12 hours, with a doubling time of roughly 4 months. [image]Left bounds inclusive, right bounds exclusive. See also: @APnLcl9A26 @zsdEyhOyPP @nRpZqZ5np5 @NClqRpg0yz @gZsNQCnsuh @LCNpQ6LN5U (this market) @n0ncl5cgpP

Liquidity: $1,500. Resolves: 3/31/2026.