Claude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon

Prediction market on manifold. This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first Claude Opus 5 model to appear on METR's graph. Claude Opus 5.1 or 6 counts for the purpose of this market, if 5 is skipped. 4.6 or 4.7 would not count. Sonnet would not count. 50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time. See METR's Time Horizon 1.1 update for the technical definition. As of April 2026, frontier time horizons are around 12 hours, with a doubling time of roughly 4 months. [image]Left bounds inclusive, right bounds exclusive. See also: @APnLcl9A26 @zsdEyhOyPP @nRpZqZ5np5 (this market) @NClqRpg0yz @gZsNQCnsuh @LCNpQ6LN5U @n0ncl5cgpP

Liquidity: $1,400. Resolves: 12/31/2026.